Market Insights

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Check out our next “State of the Market,” on Monday, 1/27.

Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 rallies 1.8%, the most since 11/6 (day after election)
• Potential bullish flag after testing Election Day close
• 63-day rate of change continues positive run that began in November 2023
• 3-month consolidation phase potentially ending as breadth improves
• S&P 500 members yesterday had the most:
  • 52-week highs since 12/11
  • Members above 20-day MA since 12/4
• Intermarket signals:
  • 10-year Treasury yield stalls at 4.75% area from November 2023 and April 2024.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), daily chart, with select patterns and indicators.

Inflation & Rates

• CPI +0.3% in December. Y/Y core +3.2%. Both 0.1 point below estimates.
  • Shelter has smallest Y/Y gain since January 2022
• John Williams of NY Fed: Inflation going to 2%, expectations are anchored
• Goolsbee: Neutral rate is still lower (implies rate cuts)
• UK inflation 0.1 point lower than expected, spurring rate-cut optimism
• Empire index -12.6 in January, missing +3 estimate. New orders weak

Regulator Departures

Some noteworthy changes around the arrival of President Trump:

News & Views

• Financials jump on strong results: GS WFC JPM C BK BLK
• FactSet: S&P 500 earnings likely to grow 14% in Q4, the most since Q4 of 2021.
• MarketWatch: Trump SEC nominee Paul Atkins viewed as more favorable for financial sector
• GS CEO David Solomon: Backlog in dealmaking, increased CEO confidence post-election
• NVDA announces Quantum Day at GTC 2025 on 3/20
  • Comes after active CEO Jensen Huang expressed skepticism about quantum computing’s near-term prospects, which impacted related stocks in the field.

Upcoming Events

• Fri 1/17: Housing starts, building permits
  • Earnings: SLB TFC
• Mon 1/20: MLK Day – Market Closed
• Tue 1/21:
  •  Premarket earnings: MMM SCHW KEY DHI
  •  Post market earnings: NFLX UAL
• Wed 1/22:
  • Premarket earnings: JNJ PG
• Thu 1/23: Jobless claims, crude oil inventories
  • Premarket earnings: FCX GE

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