Market Insights

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 holds 50% of March 15-22 weekly move, March 8 high
• Trio of key patterns remain:
  • Holds rising 21-day EMA
  • RSI above 50
  • Rate of change (9-day) mostly positive
• Intermarket (yields and forex):
  • 10-year Treasury yield potentially stuck near 4.32
  • U.S. dollar index may have peaked at 105, potentially bullish for risk assets
• Calendar is potentially favorable into earnings season, with time before key inflation and “non-live” Fed meeting on 5/1

Key News

• March ISM manufacturing unexpectedly rises above 50 for 1st time since late 2022 as new orders increase.
  • Prices accelerate. Good for margins?
• China Caixin: Chinese factory activity hits 13-month high in March
• ADP payrolls +184K vs +148K estimate in March, 1st monthly beat since December. February revised +15K
• Spotify (SPOT) raises prices, plans audio books (margin, business transformation)
• Taiwan earthquake has limited impact on chip production
• Jerome Powell still waiting for confirmation before cutting rates. “Too soon to say” if recent inflation uptick will last.

Mover of the Week: Suncor Energy

• Oil-sands producer clears November 2022 high as oil rallies
• Emerging from 18-month consolidation period
• Management plans cost cuts to widen margins as production increases
• SU +20% YTD

Signals Scan

• Applied Materials (AMAT) pulls back to 21-day EMA
• Nvidia (NVDA) near 21-day EMA
• Draftkings (DKNG) pulls back to 21-day EMA
• International Business Machines (IBM) holds near 50-day MA
• Gap (GPS): potential bull flag forming
• Universal Health Services (UHS): pulls back from new high
• Walmart (WMT) pulling back from new high
• Synchrony Financial (SYF): potential bull flag

Upcoming Events

• Fri 4/5: Nonfarm payrolls
• Wed 4/10: *CPI*, Fed minutes, DAL earnings
• Thu 4/11: PPI, jobless claims
• Fri 4/12: Earnings season kickoff: JPM, C, WFC

Using the Platform

• Bars since X% move custom indicator counts how many bars since prices rose/fell by a certain threshold.
  • EasyLanguage: “CurrentBar” is the price bar numbered from oldest to most recent
  • EasyLanguage: Close[0] = last price of current bar viewed by indicator
  • EasyLanguage: Close[1] = last price of preceding bar

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