Market Insights

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S&P 500 overview

• SPX holding January high amid Dow Transports bullish confirmation.
• 50-hour MA on @ES starting to turn upward.
• Rotation away from megacap techs / FANG is healthy.

Sensing a Bullish Shift in Sentiment

• Rotation: NFLX $$ → ROKU, P. FB → MTCH, CVNA. INTC → AMD.
• Global turbulence may keep Fed at 3 hikes … despite better than expected economy!
• Keep an eye on IPOs, smaller companies into Thanksgiving.
• Retailers repaired in time for the holidays.
• Most recent GDP, ISM manufacturing extremely positive.
• What if stocks can rally despite trade wars?
  • 9/10: Hatzius of GS (former doomsayer): Risks now tilted to upside despite trade.
  • 9/8: NYT, CNBC cautiously praise Trump economy.
  • 9/6: German Ifo Institute raises GDP outlook on private consumption.
  • 9/5: Tony Dwyer: Manufacturing strength to lift SPX another 10%.
  • 8/30: Wieting of Citi: Investment accelerating, economy getting more competitive.
  • 8/28: Todd Gordon: Elliott Wave sees SPX 3500.

Don’s Watch List:

• Global Brass & Copper (BRSS): Climbs after executive sells shares.
• Archer Daniels Midland (ADM): Value-play pullback.
• DR Horton (DHI): Quality home builder.
• Pinnacle Foods (PF): Food stock w/double-digit profit growth.
• Intel (INTC) vs Advanced Micro (AMD): Dueling chip stocks.

Russell’s Watch List:

• TRN, RAIL deep pullbacks amid railroad rally.
• Four Hoursemen of the Retail Post-Apocalypse: LULU, JWN, TGT, WMT
• CMG holding 50DMA pullback.
• MSFT calls for continuation swing. (Did you see our Greek of the Week?)
• New tech “rocket” list: CVNA, ROKU, GLUU, MTCH, P.
• QLYS breakout potential.
• BKNG on wrong side of buy-sell dynamic. Becoming source of funds like FB?
• Nice pullbacks but need to stabilize: ANET, TPR
• IBB pulls back to 50DMA after making new high. Earnings have beat, healthcare strong.
• Small device/bio watch list: VSTM, BLFS, ABUS, VKTX

Events to Watch:

• Wed. 9/12: iPhone launch, Beige Book.
• Thur 9/13: ECB early, China data late.
• Fri 9/14: Retail sales
• Next week: Housing data.
• 9/24 week: FOMC, durable goods, final GDP revision.
• October:
  • 10/7: Brazilian elections begin
  • 10/17: Canada cannabis legalization