Market Insights

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 tries to hold support above September highs
• Still at weekly resistance line
• Candlestick patterns:
  • Bearish outside candle yesterday
  • Inside week forming
• Nasdaq-100 tries to build support at summer highs
• MACD turns negative
• VIX holding 12
• Potential downside risk with prices stuck at the top of the range and 4-5 days until catalyst (Fed meeting)
• Recession fears may grow unless Fed signals Q1 rate cut
• Number of index members above 20-day MA now under 50-day total
• Potentially stalling at 10-day MA
• Stochastics, RSI dipping from overbought conditions
• Potential support at 4460 on a pullback (June monthly high, low on 11/14)

Key News

• October factory orders -3.6% vs -2.6% estimate
• Atlanta Fed’s GDP now falls to +1.3%, down from +2.2% in mid-November
  • Yield curve reinverting
• Moody’s turns negative on China sovereign credit rating
• October job openings (JOLTs) 8.73 million (lowest since March 2021) vs 9.3 million estimate
• Oil inventories fall, but gasoline increases
• ADP payrolls +103K vs +130K est. Wage slowdown continues
• Q3 productivity revised up again, wage costs down again.
  • Productivity +5.7%, versus initial estimate of +4.2% on 11/2
  • Unit labor costs -1.2%, versus initial estimate of +0.7% on 11/2
• Reuters: Low VIX boosting “gamma heavy” risk-on trades
• Reuters: Oil traders doubt significant cuts by OPEC+
• Walmart CEO McMillon: Wage pressures easing
• Blackbook: Used car prices -2.4% last week, versus -1.8% the previous week.
  • Vehicles sitting 56 days (most in at least 4 years)
• Tech layoffs: Twilio (TWLO), Spotify (SPOT) rally on cost cuts

Sector Watch

• Airlines rally on M&A, lower oil, lower rates
• Biotechnology outperforms in last week
• Banks, homebuilders, small caps strong
• Nasdaq, large-cap growth stalls amid “everything else” rally
• Energy continues to lag
• Semiconductors lag
• China lags

Mover of the Week: Pinterest

• Social-media stock beat earnings, revenue estimates on 10/30
• Positive analyst notes from New Street (11/27), Jefferies (11/30)
• Optimism about turnaround plan, advertising deal with Amazon.com (AMZN)
• PINS 38% YTD

Upcoming Events

• Mon 12/11: ORCL earnings
• Tue 12/12: CPI
• Wed 12/13: PPI, Fed
  • Earnings: ABDE
• Thu 12/14: Retail sales, jobless claims
  • Earnings: COST, LEN

Standardized Performances for ETF mentioned above

Security futures are not suitable for all investors. To obtain a copy of the security futures risk disclosure statement Investment and Trading Disclosures Booklet – Futures.Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.

Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options.