Market Insights

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 makes lower weekly high at post-Fed gap
• Outside days on 10/12 and 10/17 are potential reversal patterns
• 8-day EMA fails to cross above 21-day EMA (short term)
• 20-, 30-, 50-day moving averages all falling (intermediate term)
• Price stalls below 100-day MA (long-term)
• Combination of higher for longer and geopolitical risk may pressure valuations

Key News

• Retail sales beat for 3rd straight month, boosting rate outlook
• Airlines drop as United Airlines (UAL) warns of fuel costs, global tensions
  • CEO Scott Kirby to CNBC: Business models must change to survive as labor costs rise
• Apple’s pair of bearish analyst notes
  • Jefferies: iPhone loses leadership in China to Huawei / Android
  • Ming-Chi Kuo: MacBook demand down “significantly” in back-to-school season
• Chips fall on Biden Administration China trade restrictions
  • Lam Research (LRCX) falls on mixed guidance
• Housing struggles:
  • NAHB homebuilder sentiment drops more than expected to lowest since January
  • Mortgage purchases applications -6% as 30-year mortgage tops 8% for first time since 2000
• Morgan Stanley: Engagement growing for Meta Platforms’ (META) Reels among Facebook, Instagram users.
• Tesla (TSLA) earnings, revenue miss estimates as operating margin narrows from 17.2% to 7.6%.
• Netflix (NFLX) subscribers, earnings beat amid password crackdown.

Sector Watch

• P&C insurers rally amid strong premiums, safe-haven status: PGR, ALL, ACGL
• Energy: Wildcatters, oil tankers outperform
  • Wildcatters: SM, CPE, MGY
  • Tankers: DHT, FRO, TNK
• Diabetes-related stocks under pressure: DVA, DXCM, BAX, PODD
• Airlines fall as oil rises, global tensions mount
• Semiconductors fall amid trade worries
• Chinese tech stocks under pressure

Signals Scan

• Gold futures (@GC): Potential weekly breakout
• Amazon.com (AMZN) stalls under 21-day EMA, 50-day MA
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM) potentially stalling at 50-day MA
• Rivian Automotive (RIVN) potentially breaking 200-day MA
• Bank of America (BAC) near top of Keltner Channel
• Fintechs: Potential downtrends starting in SoFi Technologies (SOFI), Affirm (AFRM)
• Sea (SE): Potentially stalling in bearish gap

Mover of the Week: Diamondback Energy

• Shale-oil producer active near Midland in central Texas
• Has rallied since Exxon Mobil (XOM) acquired peer Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD)
• FANG +24% YTD

Upcoming Events

• Tomorrow (10/20): Harker of Fed to speak
  • Earnings: AXP, SLB
• Tuesday (10/24)
  • Pre-market earnings: GM, HAL
  • Post-market earnings: MSFT, SNAP, TXN, V
• Wednesday (10/25): New home sales, crude-oil inventories
  • Pre-market earnings: BA, TMUS
  • Post-market earnings: META, NOW, IBM
• Thursday (10/26): GDP, jobless claims, durable goods
  • Pre-market earnings: MA, RCL, CMCSA

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