Market Insights

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Sizing Up the S&P 500

• S&P 500 holds middle of 4050-4187 range
• Debt ceiling may increasingly overshadow technicals into June 1
• Potential support at 50-day MA at 4090
• 20 level on VIX is potential signal
• Some analysts see risk of “liquidity drain” once Treasury can borrow again.
• Bullish sentiment historically low, according to AAII

Key Economic News

• Fed hints at pause:
  • 5/19: Powell sees “risk of doing too much,” waits for May data.
  • 5/24: Fed minutes see “less certain” need for hikes and “the past years’ tightening was beginning to have its intended effect.”
• S&P PMI shows acceleration in May:
  • 54.5 vs 50 estimate, biggest increase in 13 months
  • Services lead as inventories weigh on manufacturing (potentially good for inflation)
  • Manufacturers’ input costs drop for first time in 3 years
• April new home sales beat: 683K (annualized) vs 670K estimate

Leaders & Laggards

• Energy tries to bounce as inventories fall, Saudis threaten
• Software, cybersecurity outperform
• Precious metals, housing, global stocks lag
• China leads to the downside
• Safe havens drop: Consumer staples, REITs

Company News

• Nvidia (NVDA) guides 50% above consensus on AI demand
• Palo Alto Networks (PANW) earnings, revenue beat
• Applied Materials (AMAT) earnings, revenue beat

Signals Scan

• Apple (AAPL): 21-day EMA pullback
• Shopify (SHOP): 21-day EMA pullback
• McDonald’s (MCD): 50-day MA pullback
• Oracle (ORCL): 21-day EMA pullback
• Micron Technology (MU): Breaks out, pulls back
• Applied Materials (AMAT): Breaks out, pulls back
• Cemex (CX): Keltner pullback
• Mastercard (MA): Pulls back to 50-day MA, Keltner channel

Mover of the Week: Symbiotic (SYM)

• AI-powered warehouse robots for e-commerce
• Earnings, revenue guidance beat on 5/1
• SYM +170% YTD

Upcoming Events

• Tomorrow 5/25: Durable goods, PCE inflation
• Monday 5/29: Memorial Day holiday
• Tuesday 5/30: Consumer confidence. HP (HPQ) earnings
• Wednesday 5/31: Salesforce.com (CRM)

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