Cloud-Computing vs Crude Oil: Lessons in a Dramatic Chart
David Russell
May 11, 2021
One of the biggest events in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average happened last August when Salesforce.com replaced Exxon Mobil as an index member. A 21-year software company elbowed out a transnational giant tracing its origins to John D. Rockefeller and the dawn of modern capitalism.
Despite the stunning endorsement, things haven’t worked out so well for CRM since then. Its shares peaked above $280 one week later and then turned lower. (That was a giddy moment for growth stocks because Apple and Tesla had just split their shares.)
Additionally, TradeStation analytics show that CRM has gone 172 sessions without a new 52-week high. That’s the longest for any member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. XOM, in contrast, hit a new high yesterday.
It’s a good lesson in froth and exuberance: Just when it seems things can never go wrong, it’s often a sign of the top. Other adages that could apply are “buy the rumor, sell the news,” or “be fearful when others are greedy.”
The chart above compares CRM to XOM since they traded places in the Dow. Notice how XOM lagged for a couple more months but then…
David Russell is Global Head of Market Strategy at TradeStation. Drawing on nearly two decades of experience as a financial journalist and analyst, his background includes equities, emerging markets, fixed-income and derivatives. He previously worked at Bloomberg News, CNBC and E*TRADE Financial.
Russell systematically reviews countless global financial headlines and indicators in search of broad tradable trends that present opportunities repeatedly over time. Customers can expect him to keep them appraised of sector leadership, relative strength and the big stories – especially those overlooked by other commentators. He’s also a big fan of generating leverage with options to limit capital at risk.
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