Market Insights

Click here to register for the webinar, which begins at 4:30 p.m. ET.

S&P 500 overview

• Few bearish signals after triangle breakout.
• Lack of correlations, inter-market warning flags.
• Sectors bullish as investors rotate into risk-on areas like XLB, EEM.
• News sentiment bullish because bad news (trade wars) fading, while good news (earnings) not fully priced in.
• Seasonality may favor complacent drift up, followed by quick drops.
• @ES likely to give 5-10 point drops, followed by rebounds.

Global picture brighter

• U.S. dollar (@DX) slid as expected last week.
• Yuan allowed to gain as Beijing avoids playing hardball with forex.
• U.S., Mexico sign trade deal, replacing NAFTA.
• German Ifo strong as trade worries ease.
• Jerome Powell leaves the punch bowl.
• Click here for more.

Don’s watch list:

• American Eagle (AEO) reports Wednesday morning.
• Tesla Motors (TSLA): What the heck is going on?
• Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG): Whacked by Wedbush.
• Nike (NKE) drifts higher a month before earnings.
• Pfizer (PFE): Buy the pullback?

Russell’s watch list:

• Cleveland Cliffs (CLF): Potential bullish continuation after strong earnings. Materials improving.
• Petrobras (PBR), Facebook (FB), Rio Tinto (RIO), Wynn Resorts (WYNN): Potential put-spread credit opportunities.
• Match (MTCH) probing new highs w/breakout potential.
• Caterpillar (CAT), Vale (VALE) breaking 50DMAs.
• Whiting Petroleum (WLL), Marathon Oil (MRO) have continuation potential if energy climbs.
• Twitter (TWTR): Will it fill bearish gap from July 27?
• XPO Logistics (XPO): Long-term secular/cyclical growth name breaking 50DMA.
• Microsoft (MSFT): October or November 110 calls (max gamma) could make sense.
• Walt Disney (DIS) holding $112 price zone.
• Options action:
  • 8/23: Glu Mobile (GLUU) short-calls rolled.
  • 8/27: Cheniere Energy (LNG) call-spread rolled.

Charts & Sectors:

• Strong rotation into global, materials. Safe havens perilous.
• Chips clawing back. Watch SMH around $109.40.
• Software blitzing higher as cloud business model flourishes: VEEV, SPLK.
  • CRM reports Wednesday PM, NTNX on Thursday PM
  • PVTL, QLYS on watch list.
• Small/new-tech on the rise: ZS, PS, ARLO
• Retailers mostly strong earnings: Watching WMT, TGT for pullbacks.

Upcoming events:

• Wednesday 8/29: GDP revision, crude-oil inventories.
• Rest of week: Are we even open?
• Next week: Payrolls, ISM, few earnings. China news?